Recall that the last two major developments for the crypto world were more negative than positive. Central banks (notably the Fed) have begun tightening monetary policy, which raises demand for safe assets rather than for Bitcoin. The Clarity Act remains only a bill. If Democrats win control of Congress, there is a real chance the bill will never become law. Thus, the fundamentals for further crypto market upside look questionable.

Meanwhile, Michael Saylor not only explained why Bitcoin will keep rising—he also announced new purchases by his company, Strategy. In a post on X, Saylor hinted that Strategy is preparing fresh buys of "digital gold." He has also been talking about building an entire $100 trillion financial system backed by Bitcoin. According to him, corporations are increasingly accumulating "digital gold," and Bitcoin is at the very beginning of its transformation into something larger than it has been over the past 17 years.

Saylor says Bitcoin will become part of the global financial and banking system. That implies demand will only grow, as will its price. It is worth noting that at present, Strategy is the only corporate buyer that spends every spare dollar on new Bitcoin purchases. If Strategy holds roughly 850,000 coins, the second-largest holder has no more than about 50,000. Other companies also invest in Bitcoin, but far more cautiously than Strategy, which for six years has been "putting all eggs in one basket." Therefore, in our view, Saylor's purchase announcements are not a market-wide signal to rush into Bitcoin.

Trading recommendations for BTC/USD:

Bitcoin shows signs of the start of a new bull trend. This trend begins, as is often the case, with a pump that lacks specific, clear reasons. The Fed has not started cutting rates, and the Clarity Act was not adopted. In the near term on the daily timeframe, Bitcoin may be in decline, since the price reacted to a bearish FVG and generated two sell signals. Also note that the current breakout beyond the daily sideways channel may be a deviation. Yes, a deep deviation, but still a deviation. If so, Bitcoin could head to $70,800 and even preserve the downtrend that began last year. We believe short positions are most relevant in the near term. On the 4-hour timeframe, be cautious near the upper boundary of the sideways channel—a deviation may form and the decline may resume.

Trading recommendations for ETH/USD:

On the daily timeframe, the technical picture for Ether has changed completely. Now Ether is oriented toward a new uptrend. However, bulls can rely only on the weekly chart, where Ether has set a course for $4,800, the upper boundary of a five-year sideways channel. On the daily timeframe the first bearish FVG did not prompt a noticeable price reaction, but Bitcoin reacted to its own FVGs, and recall that Ether's price depends on Bitcoin's by roughly 80–90%. Bitcoin began to correct, and Ether also plunged. Thus, in the near term we expect declines (as before). Ether targets are around $2,300 and lower, down to $1,850. On the daily timeframe, Ether received a sell signal from the nearest FVG. Liquidity removal warns of a pause in the decline or a possible end to the downward correction. But the downward correction in Ether, given the current Bitcoin dominance index, will end only when the correction in "digital gold" ends.

Explanations for the illustrations:

CHOCH—change of character, break of trend structure.

Liquidity—liquidity, stop losses, and pending orders that market makers use to build positions.

FVG—fair value gap, an area of price inefficiency. Price moves quickly through such areas, indicating the absence of one side in the market. Later prices tend to return and react to these areas in the direction of the main trend.

IFVG — inverted fair value gap. After a return to such an area, Price receives no reaction and impulsively breaks through, then tests from the other side.

OB — order block. The candle on which a market maker opened a position to capture liquidity and form a position in the opposite direction.